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© 2019 Change Research

Biden, Warren, and Sanders lead the Democratic Primary in South Carolina Following Debate

The Post and Courier/Change Research

South Carolina Poll: October 15-21, 2019

Key Takeaways: 

  • Joe Biden (30%), Elizabeth Warren (19%), and Bernie Sanders (13%) lead among Democratic primary voters in South Carolina after the October Democratic primary debate.

  • Sanders leads among 18-34 year-old voters; Biden leads among voters 35 years and older.

  • Among black voters, Biden (38%) has a 21-point lead over Harris (17%), followed by Warren (12%). Warren (26%) leads Biden (20%) among white voters, followed by Sanders (17%).

Change Research surveyed 1,683 likely general election voters in South Carolina, including 731 likely Democratic primary voters, after the fourth Democratic primary debates. The poll produced thousands of data points powering actionable insights for campaigns and organizations following the race to 2020. This page contains a preview of the survey’s findings - inquire about purchasing the full poll

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Look beyond the horse race:

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Biden, Warren, and Sanders Lead the Democratic Primary in South Carolina

 

Joe Biden leads the Democratic primary with 30%. He is followed by Elizabeth Warren (19%), Bernie Sanders (13%), Kamala Harris (11%), Pete Buttigieg (9%), Tom Steyer (5%), Andrew Yang (4%), Tulsi Gabbard (3%), Cory Booker (3%), and Amy Klobuchar (3%). All other candidates poll at 1% or less.

Every poll includes: 

  • full crosstabs

  • an open-ended question analysis powered by Change Research's natural language processing technology

  • an executive summary

Limited Poll Info

Toplines

Sample and Methodology

Full crosstabs and more available for purchase. Learn more here

Trends

Breakdown by Age

 

Sanders leads among 18-34 year-old voters in South Carolina with 41% of the vote, followed by Warren with 15%, and Biden with 13%. Among 35-49 year old voters, Biden leads with 29%, followed by Warren (24%) and Harris (15%). Biden has a larger lead among voters 50 years and older, leading Warren by 20-points among voters 50-64 years old, and by 18-points among voters 65 years and older.

Breakdown by Race

Joe Biden leads among black voters with 38%, followed by Harris (17%), and Warren (12%). Elizabeth Warren leads white voters with 26%, followed by Biden (20%), and Sanders (17%).

Trends 

 

Change Research has polled the Democratic horse race in South Carolina six times since April. Biden has gradually dropped since he announced the start of his campaign in May, dropping from a peak of 46% to 30% in our latest poll. Warren rose 2 points since August. Buttigieg, Steyer, Yang, Gabbard, and Klobuchar all also saw slight increases since August.

2020 Change

Change Research’s 2020 Change polling series is offering candidates and causes an opportunity to access deeper insights for a strategic advantage.

2020 Change is a series of individual polls and aggregate polling memos. 

The polls cover local issues far beyond the Democratic nomination, providing actionable insights for those working on ballot measures, issue advocacy campaigns, down-ballot races, or other legislative initiatives. 

You can buy a single poll, a series of polls from a specific state (e.g., California polls only), or choose the combination that’s right for you. Purchase a poll or series of polls to gain access to surveys of large samples of Democratic primary voters across demographic groups and areas of the United States.

Learn more about purchasing polls.

Change Research surveyed 1,683 likely general election voters in South Carolina, including 731 likely Democratic primary voters. The margin of error as traditionally calculated is  ± 2.4% for the full sample and ±3.6% for Democratic voters. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. Our Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, region, 2016 primary and presidential vote, and self-reported social media use.