Poll in IL-13, MI-6, and NY-24 from November 26-December 1, 2019 (excluding Thanksgiving Day)
On behalf of National Security Action and Defend American Democracy, Change Research polled likely voters in three Republican-held House battleground districts: Illinois 13 (Rodney Davis), Michigan 6 (Fred Upton), and New York 24 (John Katko). The goals were to understand how closely voters were tracking Trump’s Ukraine scandal, the House Intelligence Committee hearings, what evidence and arguments for or against impeachment are most resonant, whether voters recognize the seriousness Trump’s actions, and how voters expect their member of Congress to hold Trump accountable.
These congressmen enter 2020 with exceptionally low favorability ratings and with majorities disapproving of their handling of the impeachment inquiry and their record when it comes to holding President Trump accountable. A majority of voters in these key Republican districts think what Trump did was wrong and, once they hear the facts, are less likely to support Members of Congress who oppose the impeachment inquiry.
Specifically, majorities express concern about facts established during the impeachment inquiry and believe that the primary grounds for impeachment have been established - including believing Trump abused the power of his office, withheld military funds to pressure a foreign country to investigate a political rival, and put his personal political interests before the good of the country. The survey also found that voters will not reward Republicans for their opposition to impeachment: just 38% say they are more likely to support a member of Congress who opposes impeachment at the end of the survey, while a 54% majority says they are less likely to support an impeachment opponent after hearing arguments on both sides.
The message is clear: voters in these districts believe their representatives should put politics aside during impeachment and do their job.
Change Research surveyed 3,023 likely general election voters across 3 Republican-held House districts, including 1,028 likely voters in IL-13, 998 likely voters in MI-6, and 998 likely voters in NY-24. The margin of error as traditionally calculated is ± 3.05% in IL-13 and ± 3.1% in MI-6 and NY-24. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. Our Dynamic Online Sampling technology delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done within district on gender, age, ethnicity, education, and 2016 presidential vote.