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© 2020 Change Research

Sanders leads by 14 Points in the Democratic Primary in California

Change Research/ KQED California Poll: January 25-27, 2020


Key Takeaways:.

  • Bernie Sanders has consolidated his lead in the Democratic primary with 30%, followed by Warren (16%), Biden (15%), and Buttigieg (8%). 13% of the electorate says they are still undecided.

  • Sanders leads among all age groups besides 65+ voters. Biden leads Sanders by 1 point among 65+ voters.

  • Sanders and Biden lead among non-white Democratic primary voters. Sanders has 36% of support among Latinx voters, followed by Biden with 20%.


Change Research surveyed 1,967 likely general election voters in California, including 1,190 likely Democratic primary voters, and 508 likely Republican primary voters.

Sanders, Warren, and Biden Lead the Democratic Primary in California

Bernie Sanders leads the Democratic primary with 30%. He is followed by Elizabeth Warren (16%), Joe Biden (15%), Pete Buttigieg (8%), Andrew Yang (5%), Tulsi Gabbard (4%) Michael Bloomberg (4%), Amy Klobuchar (3%), and Tom Steyer (2%). All other candidates poll at 1% or less.



Democratic Nomination - Breakdown By Age


Sanders overwhelmingly leads among 18-34 year-old voters with 53% of the vote. The next closest candidates are Andrew Yang with 12%, Elizabeth Warren with 9%, and Joe Biden with 8%. Among 25 to 49 year olds, Sanders also leads substantially with 31%, followed by Warren (17%), Biden (13%), and Buttigieg (10%).


The race narrows among voters 50 years and older. Sanders still leads among those 50 to 64 with 20%, trailed by Warren (18%) and Biden (17%). Biden takes the lead among voters 65 years and older with 19%, but he is closely followed by Sanders (18%) and Warren (17%). Those 65 years and older have the largest number of undecided voters with 27%, followed by 15% of 35 to 49 year olds, 9% of 50 to 64 year olds, and only 4% of voters 18 to 34.



Democratic Nomination - Breakdown By Race


Among Latinx voters, Sanders (36%) leads Biden (20%) by 16 points and Warren (16%) by 20 points. Joe Biden leads among black voters with 35%, followed by Sanders (28%), and Steyer (12%). Asian voters support Sanders (27%), followed by Buttigieg (21%), and Yang (15%). Sanders also leads among white voters, with 28%. Warren dropped from first among white voters since our last survey, now trailing Sanders with 18%, compared to her lead of 31% in December.



Trends in the Democratic Nomination Since April


Change Research has polled the Democratic horse race in California seven times since April. Sanders has continued his steady climb, consistently rising in our polls since July. Warren began losing support in October, and this trend continues in January. Biden and Buttugieg both dropped 4 points since December. Since our last poll in December, Cory Booker, Julián Castro, and Marianne Willamson suspended their campaigns. However, this appears to not have significantly shifted the trends of the race, as they all had 3% or less support in our last poll. Bloomberg is not present on this trend line, but he has experienced a 1 point increase from 3% to 4% since our first poll with him on the ballot in December.

Toplines

Trends

Sample & Methodology

Change Research surveyed 1,967 likely general election voters in California, including 1,190 likely Democratic primary voters and 508 likely Republican primary voters. The margin of error as traditionally calculated is ± 2.8% for the full sample, ±3.4% for Democratic voters, and ±5.2% for Republican voters. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. Our Dynamic Online Sampling delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, 2016 vote, 2016 primary vote, geography.