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© 2019 Change Research

Biden, Warren, and Sanders Lead

the Democratic Primary in New Jersey

Change Research New Jersey Poll: August 16-20, 2019

Key Takeaways: 

  • Joe Biden (26%), Elizabeth Warren (23%), and Bernie Sanders (21%) have the highest levels of support among likely Democratic voters in New Jersey.

  • Biden has a 42-point lead among black primary voters with 55%. Warren leads among white voters with 29%, followed by Biden 22%.

  • Sanders leads among 18-34 and 35-49 year-old voters and Biden leads among 50-64 year-old and 65 and older voters. The race is closest among 35-49 year-old voters: Sanders (24%) has a one-point lead over Warren (23%).

  • US Senator from New Jersey and previous mayor of Newark, Cory Booker, has 5% of support among voters in his home state.

Screen Shot 2019-06-19 at 5.20.32 PM.png

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Every poll includes: 

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  • an executive summary

Biden, Warren, and Sanders Lead the Democratic Primary in New Jersey

Joe Biden leads the Democratic primary in New Jersey with 26%. He is followed by Elizabeth Warren (23%) and Bernie Sanders (21%). Pete Buttigieg (12%), Kamala Harris (8%), Cory Booker (5%), and Beto O’Rourke (2%) follow.  All other candidates poll at 1% or less. 

Limited Poll Info

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Sample and Methodology

Full crosstabs and more available for purchase. Learn more here

Sanders leads among 18-34 and 35-49 year-old voters in New Jersey. He has a 27-point lead among 18-34 year-olds, with 44%, followed by Warren (17%). Among 35-49 year-olds, Sanders has the most support with 24%, closely followed by Warren with 23%. Biden leads among 50-64 year-olds and voters older than 65 with 32% and 36% respectively; Warren follows Biden with 26% among each group.

Biden holds a 42-point lead among black Democratic primary voters in New Jersey with 55%, followed by Sanders (13%) and Harris (11%). The race is closer among white voters; Warren has the most support with 29%, 7-points ahead of Biden (22%).

2020 Change

Change Research’s 2020 Change polling series is offering candidates and causes an opportunity to access deeper insights for a strategic advantage.

2020 Change is a series of individual polls and aggregate polling memos. 

The polls cover local issues far beyond the Democratic nomination, providing actionable insights for those working on ballot measures, issue advocacy campaigns, down-ballot races, or other legislative initiatives. 

You can buy a single poll, a series of polls from a specific state (e.g., California polls only), or choose the combination that’s right for you. Purchase a poll or series of polls to gain access to surveys of large samples of Democratic primary voters across demographic groups and areas of the United States.

Learn more about purchasing polls.

Change Research surveyed 1,176 likely primary voters, including 635 self-identified Democratic primary voters. The margin of error as traditionally calculated is  ± 2.9% for the full sample and ±3.9% for Democratic voters. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. The Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, region, 2016 primary and presidential vote, and self-reported social media use.

Warren, Sanders, Biden lead the Democratic Primary Nationwide

Change Research National Poll: August 23-26, 2019

Key Takeaways: 

  • Elizabeth Warren (29%), Bernie Sanders (22%), and Joe Biden (19%) lead among Democratic primary voters nationally.

  • Biden has a 15-point lead among black voters with 35%, while Warren leads among white voters (32%), and Latinx voters (28%).

  • Sanders leads among 35-49 year-old voters and Biden leads among 65 and older voters. The race is closest among 18-34 year-old voters: Sanders is tied with Warren at 30%.


Change Research surveyed 1,695 likely general election voters nationally, including 874 likely Democratic primary voters on questions related to the Democratic horse race, top issues, and more. This page contains a preview of the survey’s findings - inquire about purchasing the full poll.

Warren, Sanders, Biden Lead the Democratic Primary Nationwide

Elizabeth Warren leads the Democratic primary nationwide with 29%. She is followed by Bernie Sanders (22%) and Joe Biden (19%). Pete Buttigieg (9%), Kamala Harris (6%), Cory Booker (3%), and Beto O’Rourke (3%) follow. All other candidates poll at 2% or less. 

Screen Shot 2019-06-19 at 5.20.32 PM.png

Look beyond the horse race:

purchase polls from our frequent polling series.

Every poll includes: 

  • full crosstabs

  • an open-ended question analysis powered by Change Research's natural language processing technology

  • an executive summary

Limited Poll Info

Toplines

Sample and Methodology

Full crosstabs and more available for purchase. Learn more here

Biden leads among black Democratic primary voters with 35%, followed by Warren (20%) and Sanders (12%). Warren has the most support among white voters, at 32%, followed by Sanders (24%) and Biden (16%).

Sanders and Warren lead with 30% each among 18-34 year-old voters nationally, followed by Biden at 9%. Among 35-49 year old voters, Sanders leads with 35%, 10-points ahead of Warren and 23-points ahead of Biden. Warren and Biden are closest among 50-64 year old voters, with Warren at 33% of the vote, and Biden with 29%. The only age group in which Biden leads is among voters older than 65, with 33% of the vote, followed by Warren with 26%. 

Straying from the Herd

These results differ from other public polls, further indication that Change Research is not afraid to stray from the herd.

 

In addition to weighting and/or cross-referencing our results with typical demographic and political variables (age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, 2016 vote), we've also cross-referenced with 2020 ActBlue donors. You'd naturally expect, for instance, that we'd be about as likely to poll the average Joe Biden donor as the average Elizabeth Warren donor.

 

 

 

In fact, we've been slightly more likely to poll the Biden donor than the donors of other candidates -- indicating that if anything we may be overestimating his support.

2020 Change

Change Research’s 2020 Change polling series is offering candidates and causes an opportunity to access deeper insights for a strategic advantage.

2020 Change is a series of individual polls and aggregate polling memos. 

The polls cover local issues far beyond the Democratic nomination, providing actionable insights for those working on ballot measures, issue advocacy campaigns, down-ballot races, or other legislative initiatives. 

You can buy a single poll, a series of polls from a specific state (e.g., California polls only), or choose the combination that’s right for you. Purchase a poll or series of polls to gain access to surveys of large samples of Democratic primary voters across demographic groups and areas of the United States.

Learn more about purchasing polls.

Change Research surveyed 1,695 likely general election voters, including 874 likely Democratic primary voters. The margin of error as traditionally calculated is  ± 2.4% for the full sample and ±3.3% for Democratic voters. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. The Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, region, 2016 primary and presidential vote, and self-reported social media use.