We've conducted over 800 polls
and surveyed over 1.4 million Americans.
Our 2018 polls were more accurate than The New York Times/Siena College in races where we both polled, more accurate than the FiveThirtyEight polling average, and we were the only pollster to correctly predict several key races in the last cycle.
Change Research was the only pollster to predict that Andrew Gillum would win the 2019 Florida gubernatorial primary; most other polling found him no higher than 3rd place.
Change Research was the only pollster to predict that Lori Lightfoot would win the 2019 Chicago mayoral primary; the average of our two polls had her leading by 2 points, and she finished 1.5% ahead on Election Day.
Change Research is a leader in polling innovation, allowing us to field polls quickly and accurately at a low price point. We recruit fresh participants online for each and every poll, meaning we aren't affected by the dwindling response rates of landline polling. We use proprietary, patent-pending approaches to recruit participants, and we don't use online panels of habitual survey takers.
We collect survey responses by publishing targeted online solicitations via advertisements on websites and social media platforms. By finding a representative set of web and social media users to take a poll, we are able to cast a net that is wider than landlines. We reach twenty-somethings and seniors, rural and urban dwellers, and members of every gender, race, creed, and political persuasion.
Target the right respondents - fast
We use our proprietary geo-targeting technology to find respondents in a specific district, be it a city council district, Congressional district, or the entire nation. We locate respondents rapidly, and can deliver results as little as hours after a poll launched. For instance, we fielded an 800-person survey in only 24 hours in Iowa’s 4th Congressional District before the 2018 elections; we found that Democratic challenger JD Scholten was within a point of unseating Republican incumbent Steve King. The poll results sparked a flood of donations to the Scholten campaign, with over $900,000 raised within 48 hours.
Dynamically adjust response collection
As we're collecting survey responses, our patent-pending Bias Correct technology adjusts our targeting to ensure a sample that reflects the electorate or population. We establish -- and can rapidly adjust -- advertising targets across age, gender, race, and partisanship to reflect a district's demographics. Any imbalances in the survey sample can be quickly detected and corrected while the survey is still fielding, rather than relying solely on post-survey techniques for big corrections.
Extrapolate to the population
Once all the responses are collected, our technology takes over, quickly and accurately performing an automated post-stratification to ensure that all segments of the electorate are properly weighted in the poll. We also utilize models based on tens of thousands of historical data points to estimate turnout, instead of relying solely on the patterns of a prior election.
Engage our natural language processing engine
We can perform text analysis, powered by natural language processing, on each poll we field. Our technology can parse hundreds or thousands of text-based responses from survey-takers and classify them into themes, providing the qualitative insight of a focus group at the scale of a large-sample poll.
Build an unprecedented data set
We’ve asked thousands of questions of over 1.4 million Americans since our founding in 2017; we’re creating a massive and ever-growing database of public opinion research. Performing sophisticated analysis on this database allows us to recognize trends that help Democrats win. For instance, in 2018 our data indicated that Trump voters were expressing negative opinions about him in Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District, meaning that the seat was a good target to be flipped R to D. We partnered with a local organization to quickly field a survey in OK-05, which determined that Kendra Horn, the Democratic challenger, had a small lead; other polls had shown her down by double digits to the Republican incumbent. Ultimately, our polling led independent organizations to invest in Kendra Horn’s race and help her win.