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© 2019 Change Research

Warren, Sanders, and Biden lead

the Democratic Caucus in Iowa

Iowa Starting Line/Change Research Iowa Poll: August 9-11, 2019

Key Takeaways: 

  • Elizabeth Warren (28%), Bernie Sanders (17%), and Joe Biden (17%) have the highest levels of support among likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa.

  • Warren leads among all caucus-goers except 18-34 year-olds. Sanders leads this group with a 14-point lead with 35%.

  • Warren leads among both female and male caucus-goers in Iowa with 31% and 22%, respectively.

Change Research surveyed 1,730 likely caucus-goers in Iowa, including 621 likely Democratic caucus-goers on questions related to the Democratic horse race, top issues, and more. The poll produced thousands of data points powering actionable insights for campaigns and organizations following the race to 2020. This page contains a preview of the survey’s findings - inquire about purchasing the full poll

Warren, Sanders, and Biden Lead the Democratic Primary in Iowa

Elizabeth Warren leads the Democratic primary in Iowa with 28%. Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are tied for second place with 17% each. They are followed by Pete Buttigieg (13%), Kamala Harris (8%), Cory Booker (3%), and Beto O’Rourke (3%). Tulsi Gabbard, Amy Klobuchar, Tom Steyer, and Steve Bullock follow with 2% each.  All other candidates poll at 1% or less. 

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Warren has the most support among every age group, except 18-34 year-olds; they prefer Sanders with 35%. Warren leads among 35-49 year-olds by 14-points with 32%, followed by Sanders (18%). She has 29% of support among 50-64 year-olds, followed by Biden (17%). Caucus-goers 65 and older show the most support for Warren (31%) and Biden (28%). 

Trends

Warren leads the race among female caucus-goers in Iowa with 31%, 15 points ahead of Sanders (16%) and Biden (16%). The race is closer among male caucus-voters: Warren also has the most support with 22%, followed by Sanders (19%) and Biden (18%). 

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Change Research surveyed 1,730 registered caucus-goers in Iowa, including 621 self-identified Democratic caucus-goers. The margin of error as traditionally calculated is  ± 2.4% for the full sample and ±3.9% for Democratic caucus-goers. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. The Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, region, 2016 presidential vote, and self-reported social media use.