Generic Democratic Candidate Is
One Point Ahead of Donald Trump
Crooked Media/Change Research Wisconsin Poll: August 9-11, 2019
If the 2020 election were to occur today, 38% of voters would definitely vote for Trump and 39% would definitely vote for the Democratic candidate
94% of registered and newly eligible Democratic and Republican voters in Wisconsin would vote along the same party line as they did in 2016
Elizabeth Warren (29%), Bernie Sanders (24%), and Joe Biden (20%) lead the Democratic primary in Wisconsin
Crooked Media, the progressive media company behind Pod Save America, and Change Research, the modern, data science-driven approach to public opinion research, are teaming up to offer unprecedented insight about Democratic voters through the 2020 election cycle.
This Wisconsin poll is part of our PollerCoaster 2020 series. Additional polls curated by the Crooked Media team and conducted by Change Research will be released leading up to the 2020 election.
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an executive summary
Democrat Poised To Make Gains With Third Party Voters, Those Who Did Not Vote in 2016
If the 2020 Presidential election were today, 45% of voters in Wisconsin would likely cast their vote for Donald Trump; 38% would “definitely” vote for him. 46% of voters in Wisconsin would likely vote for the Democratic candidate with 39% of them “definitely” voting for the Democrat.
Those who voted for Hillary Clinton and those who went for Trump in 2016 plan to stick with the same party at similar levels: 94% of each plan to stay on their side of aisle in 2020. Most of the movement we see is among those who voted for a third party candidate in 2016 or who did not vote at all.
Two-thirds of Jill Stein voters plan to vote for the Democrat in 2020; however, this is a fairly small group (Stein got 1% of the vote in 2016). Of the 3.6% who voted for Gary Johnson, 30% plan to vote Democratic, 22% Republican -- but most of Johnson’s voters who are leaning Democratic say they’ll “definitely” do so, while most of those who are inclined to go Republican are more tentative.
Those who did not vote in 2016 -- including those who have become newly eligible in the intervening years -- lean towards the Democrat by a 45-30 margin. Another 9% of these voters plan to support a third party candidate, and 16% plan to stay home in 2020.
Limited Poll Info
Warren, Sanders, and Biden lead the Democratic primary in Wisconsin
Elizabeth Warren leads the Democratic primary in Wisconsin with 29%. She is followed by Bernie Sanders (24%), Joe Biden (20%), Pete Buttigieg (9%), and Kamala Harris (5%). Andrew Yang, Amy Klobuchar, and Tulsi Gabbard follow with 2% each. All other candidates poll at 1%
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Change Research surveyed 1,966 registered voters plus newly eligible voters who indicate a high likelihood of registering by 2020, including 935 likely Democratic primary voters in Wisconsin, from August 9-11, 2019. The margin of error, as traditionally calculated, is ± 2.2% for the full sample and ± 3.2% for the Democratic primary voters. The survey was conducted online, using Change Research’s Bias Correct Engine. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. The Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, 2016 presidential vote, and self-reported social media usage.