Biden, Warren, and Sanders Lead

the Democratic Primary in New Jersey

Change Research New Jersey Poll: August 16-20, 2019

Key Takeaways: 

  • Joe Biden (26%), Elizabeth Warren (23%), and Bernie Sanders (21%) have the highest levels of support among likely Democratic voters in New Jersey.

  • Biden has a 42-point lead among black primary voters with 55%. Warren leads among white voters with 29%, followed by Biden 22%.

  • Sanders leads among 18-34 and 35-49 year-old voters and Biden leads among 50-64 year-old and 65 and older voters. The race is closest among 35-49 year-old voters: Sanders (24%) has a one-point lead over Warren (23%).

  • US Senator from New Jersey and previous mayor of Newark, Cory Booker, has 5% of support among voters in his home state.

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Biden, Warren, and Sanders Lead the Democratic Primary in New Jersey

Joe Biden leads the Democratic primary in New Jersey with 26%. He is followed by Elizabeth Warren (23%) and Bernie Sanders (21%). Pete Buttigieg (12%), Kamala Harris (8%), Cory Booker (5%), and Beto O’Rourke (2%) follow.  All other candidates poll at 1% or less. 

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Sanders leads among 18-34 and 35-49 year-old voters in New Jersey. He has a 27-point lead among 18-34 year-olds, with 44%, followed by Warren (17%). Among 35-49 year-olds, Sanders has the most support with 24%, closely followed by Warren with 23%. Biden leads among 50-64 year-olds and voters older than 65 with 32% and 36% respectively; Warren follows Biden with 26% among each group.

Biden holds a 42-point lead among black Democratic primary voters in New Jersey with 55%, followed by Sanders (13%) and Harris (11%). The race is closer among white voters; Warren has the most support with 29%, 7-points ahead of Biden (22%).

2020 Change

Change Research’s 2020 Change polling series is offering candidates and causes an opportunity to access deeper insights for a strategic advantage.

2020 Change is a series of individual polls and aggregate polling memos. 

The polls cover local issues far beyond the Democratic nomination, providing actionable insights for those working on ballot measures, issue advocacy campaigns, down-ballot races, or other legislative initiatives. 

You can buy a single poll, a series of polls from a specific state (e.g., California polls only), or choose the combination that’s right for you. Purchase a poll or series of polls to gain access to surveys of large samples of Democratic primary voters across demographic groups and areas of the United States.

Learn more about purchasing polls.

Change Research surveyed 1,176 likely primary voters, including 635 self-identified Democratic primary voters. The margin of error as traditionally calculated is  ± 2.9% for the full sample and ±3.9% for Democratic voters. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. The Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, region, 2016 primary and presidential vote, and self-reported social media use.

Warren, Sanders, Biden lead the Democratic Primary in California Following Debate

Change Research California Poll: September 12-15, 2019

Key Takeaways: 

  • Elizabeth Warren (25%), Bernie Sanders (23%), and Joe Biden (18%) lead among Democratic primary voters in California after the September Democratic primary debate.

  • Sanders leads among 18-34 year-old voters, Warren leads among 35-49 and 50-64 year old voters, and Biden and Warren are tied among voters 65 years and older. 

  • Harris (27%) has a 3-point lead over Biden (24%) among black voters, while Sanders (35%) has a 17-point lead over Warren (18%) and Biden (18%) among Latinx voters.

  • US Senator from California and former California Attorney General Kamala Harris has 11% of support in her home state.

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Change Research surveyed 5,335 likely general election voters in California, including 3,325 likely Democratic primary voters, after the third Democratic primary debates. The survey covered questions related to the Democratic horse race, top issues, and more. This page contains a preview of the survey’s findings - inquire about purchasing the full poll

Warren, Sanders, Biden Lead the Democratic Primary in California

 

Elizabeth Warren leads the Democratic primary with 25%. She is followed by Bernie Sanders (23%), Joe Biden (18%), Kamala Harris (11%), Pete Buttigieg (10%), Andrew Yang (3%), Beto O’Rourke (2%), Tulsi Gabbard (2%), and Cory Booker (2%). All other candidates poll at 1% or less.

Look beyond the horse race:

purchase polls from our frequent polling series.

Every poll includes: 

  • full crosstabs

  • an open-ended question analysis powered by Change Research's natural language processing technology

  • an executive summary

Limited Poll Info

Toplines

Sample and Methodology

Full crosstabs and more available for purchase. Learn more here

Sanders leads among 18-34 year-old voters in California with 45% of the vote, followed by Warren with 18% and Harris and Yang, both with 8%. Among 35-49 year old voters, Warren leads with 28%, followed by Sanders (23%) and Harris (14%). Support for Sanders significantly drops among voters 50 years and older. Warren (26%) leads Biden (25%) by 1-point among voters 50-64 years old, while Warren and Biden are tied among voters 65 years and older, each with 29%.

Trends

Kamala Harris leads among black voters with 27%, followed by Biden (24%), and Warren (21%). Asian voters support Biden (22%), followed by Warren (21%), Sanders (18%), and Yang (14%). Among Latinx voters, Sanders leads both Warren and Biden by 17-points with 35%. Warren leads white voters with 31%, followed by Sanders (19%), and Biden (16%).

2020 Change

Change Research’s 2020 Change polling series is offering candidates and causes an opportunity to access deeper insights for a strategic advantage.

2020 Change is a series of individual polls and aggregate polling memos. 

The polls cover local issues far beyond the Democratic nomination, providing actionable insights for those working on ballot measures, issue advocacy campaigns, down-ballot races, or other legislative initiatives. 

You can buy a single poll, a series of polls from a specific state (e.g., California polls only), or choose the combination that’s right for you. Purchase a poll or series of polls to gain access to surveys of large samples of Democratic primary voters across demographic groups and areas of the United States.

Learn more about purchasing polls.

Change Research surveyed 5,335 likely general election voters in California, including 3,325 likely Democratic primary voters. The margin of error as traditionally calculated is  ± 1.3% for the full sample and ±1.7% for Democratic voters. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. The Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, region, 2016 primary and presidential vote, and self-reported social media use.

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