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Harris, Warren, and Sanders Lead the Democratic Primary in California

Change Research California Poll: July 9-11, 2019

Key Takeaways: 

 

  • Harris (23%), Warren (22%), and Sanders (20%) lead the Democratic primary in California.

  • Sanders (37%) leads among 18-34 year-olds and Biden (23%) leads among 35-49 year-old voters. Harris (28%) has a narrow lead over 50-64 year-old voters. Biden (29%) leads among voters older than 65.

  • California voters are split on the constitutional amendment to Proposition 13; 39% would vote yes, 39% would vote no. 

Change Research surveyed 2,698 registered voters, including 1,609 Democratic primary voters, in California on questions related to the Democratic horse race, 2020 general election, state issues, and more. The poll produced thousands of data points powering actionable insights for campaigns and organizations following California. This page contains a preview of the survey’s findings - inquire about purchasing the full poll. 

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Harris, Warren, and Sanders Lead the California Democratic Primary  

 

Kamala Harris leads the California Democratic primary by one point, polling at 23%; Elizabeth Warren (22%) and Bernie Sanders (20%) follow closely behind. Joe Biden (17%) sits in fourth place, followed by Pete Buttigieg (8%) and Beto O’Rourke, Tulsi Gabbard, and Andrew Yang (2%). All other candidates poll at 1% or less. 

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Biden leads among Asian Democratic voters in California, polling at 27%, a seven point lead over Sanders (20%). Harris has a 3-point lead among black voters at 29%, followed by Biden (26%). Sanders has a lead among Latinx voters in California, polling at 30%; Harris follows at 21%. Warren leads among white voters, with a five point lead at 29%, followed by Harris (24%). 

Sanders has a 13-point lead among 18-34 year-olds, polling at 37%, followed by Warren (24%). The race among 35-49 year-old voters is close, with Biden leading at 23%; Sanders (22%) and Warren (20%) follow. Harris (28%) has a one point lead among 50-64 year-old voters, followed by Warren (27%). Voters older than 65 prefer Biden (29%), followed by Harris (25%).

California voters are split on their support for the California Tax on Commercial and Industrial Properties for Education and Local Government Funding Initiative, an initiated constitutional amendment to Proposition 13; among those who are sure of their position, 39% would vote yes and 39% would vote no. Among undecided voters, 10% lean towards voting yes, 6% lean towards voting no, and 7% lean towards not voting.

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Change Research surveyed 2,698 registered voters in California with a margin of error of  ± 1.9% for the full sample. That sample includes 1,609 Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of ± 2.5% for the Democratic sample. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. The Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, and 2016 presidential vote.